Sunday, August 22, 2021


Bottom of Form

Is China a pot of gold or a pitfall?

September 7, 2011 at 4:31 pm by Larry Levinson

China, its growing middle class, and a total potential of 1.2 billion new customers remains a strong draw for Western companies seeking to expand into new markets.

Besides the success stories, a trio of recent reports serve as reminders that there is a significant dark side to the Chinese market.

For Yum! Brands (YUM) — purveyors of Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and KFC — China has been an unalloyed hit. Operating earnings in the second quarter grew 25% on a 28% increase in revenue, compared with a 28% decline in operating earnings in the U.S. Total restaurants in the country grew to more than 4,000, with 99 in the second quarter alone.

KFC's Chinese managers celebrate on the Great Wall. Source: Yum! Brands

Put another way, the company opens an average of more than one restaurant a day in the Middle Kingdom.

Jeweler Harry Winston (HWD), known for lending out diamonds to drape Hollywood starlets for Oscar night, also sees a bright spot in China.

“Nothing is too big, nothing is too beautiful, nothing is too expensive for Chinese today. They are on a quest for true luxury,” said Chief Executive Frederic de Narp, who is making it the company’s mission to “seduce and serve the creme de le creme of China.”

The company plans to have 10 stores in China in five years, compared with just one each in Beijing and Hong Kong today.

“All luxury brands see China as a mass market. We see China as the most exclusive market in the world,” de Narp said.

Behind the scenes, Chinese officials are driving very hard bargains with companies that want access to their markets. For a resurgent General Motors (GM), and the highly anticipated plugin electric vehicle Chevy Volt, the ability to sell on a level playing field may come with a heavy price.

To qualify for the subsidies of up to $19,300 a vehicle the government allows for electric cars, China is demanding GM give a Chinese competitor access to one of the vehicle’s key technologies, the New York Times said.

The Volt has a suggested retail price of about $41,000 in the U.S., excluding federal incentives of about $7,500.

GM's Chevy Volt. Source: General Motors

The new car market in China is currently estimated at a world-leading 17 million vehicles a year.

China’s R&D budget is too small to quickly duplicate the efforts that have resulted in the Volt. “We have to break through and master the core technologies,” Chen Jiachang, a deputy director of the ministry of science and technology, said in a speech Saturday at a conference in China, the paper said.

The Volt would compete with a sedan produced by China’s BYD Co., a firm backed by U.S. investor Warren Buffett.

The demand, which some say would violate World Trade Organization rules, is contained in a draft policy in China that is awaiting final approval.

GM’s competitors are waiting to see the outcome of the dispute before moving ahead with their own electric car plans for China. However, a Ford Motor Co. (F) spokeswoman said the company would share some technology with its Chinese partner, the civilian automotive affiliate of a large military contractor.

Nissan (NSANY) won’t sell its Leaf fully electric car in China, but is working with a Chinese partner to develop its own electric car for the country by 2015, the paper said.

And when it comes to the “rare earth” minerals that are a key part of many high-tech products, such as electric cars, cells phones, and advanced light bulbs, China is using its position to hold on to supply and attract investment. The country produces virtually all of the world’s supply of 14 rare earth minerals — lanthanum through ytterbium, plus scandium, yttrium and lutetium — and carefully controls their export.

For the past two years, export quotas have limited supply to 30,000 tons a year, compared with worldwide consumption of double that number in previous years. In addition, exports of raw versions of the minerals are subject to taxes of up to 25%, plus value-added taxes of 17%, while items that undergo some processing in China may leave tax-free, including the VAT.

“We saw the writing on the wall — we simply bought the equipment and ramped up in China to begin with,” Mike Pugh, director of worldwide operations for light bulb maker Intematix, told the Times.

Despite sharply lower costs for labor and equipment, amounting to pennies on the dollar, Intematix would have preferred to keep its production closer to its Fremont, California, headquarters to protect its jealously guarded proprietary processes.

Finally, faced with skyrocketing shipping costs in 2008, Brazil’s Vale (VALE) decided to buy its own ships to carry iron ore to China, its biggest customer.

Earlier this year, the Chinese refused to allow the first of those enormous bulk carriers to dock at its ports. The Vale Brasil, touted on the company website, had to be rerouted to Italy instead.

The ship, the world’s largest bulk carrier with a capacity of 400,000 tons, is only the first of 19 the company pledged to buy, including a total of seven from a shipyard in Korea for $748 million and 12 from China for $1.6 billion.

Vale is now in talks with other shipping companies, including China’s state owned COSCO Group (CICOY), to sell or lease the fleet.

“We don’t want to be a major freight operator or make money out of our shipping business,” Vale’s global marketing director Pedro Gutemberg told Reuters. “We just want to make sure that our freight cost doesn’t shoot up. So any person that wants to partner with us is very welcome.”

COSCO is struggling as the economic downturn has slashed rental rates for ships to about $25,000 a day, down anywhere from 50% to 75% from the peak three years ago.

“Our counterparts should hope for the best for us because right now we are in the restructuring process of our bulk carriers,” a COSCO official, who wished not to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media on the subject, told Reuters.

“In maybe one or two years, China COSCO will be stronger, more efficient and a much more reliable friend to cooperate with. All the outside parties should see this issue in this way.”

The company’s shares are down more than 50% so far this year.

More topics: byddyChinaChinese stocksCICOYemerging marketsFGMhwdinvesting in ChinaNSANYrare earthsVALEYUM

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The views expressed at Emerging Money are strictly those of the authors, and not those of Emerging Money, its staff or management.

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Friday, June 18, 2021

EMerging Money.Com: Asia's luxury goods inflation beats CPI for the rest of us

 

Asia's luxury goods inflation beats CPI for the rest of us

September 1, 2011 at 4:32 pm by Larry Levinson

Bank Julius Baer, in what can only be seen as an altruistic attempt to soften the bad news for their wealthier Asian clients, has gone to the trouble of calculating how much prices have risen in the East for the well-heeled to support their Gucci habits.

The Zurich-based private bank, with the help of broker CLSA, calculates that the price of living the life of a high-net-worth individual in metropolitan Asia has gone up 11.7% for the 12 months ending April 2011.

The increase in the bank’s lifestyle index — a basket of 20 luxury goods and services — “shows clearly that the cost of living in luxury in Asia substantially outpaces conventional CPI measures,” Julius Baer notes helpfully.

That’s inflation of 5.1% for everyone else, they said.

The main reason for the increase is higher demand. That is, the wealthy are fighting with all the other nouveau riche for baubles and bangles and bright shiny beads.

Before you start worrying the HNWIs — their acronym — will have trouble keeping the Rolls in motor oil, you should know that Julius Baer is predicting the number of dollar millionaires in Asia will double to 2.82 million by 2015. At the same time, their wealth will triple to $15.8 trillion.

The bank expects China and India to account for 40% of the world’s growth in gross domestic output through 2012, supporting the need for China to promote economic expansion. Read “loose money” stance.

“Our report is unique as many of the insights come from conversations with our clients, enabling a deeper understanding of what is important in this market,” Boris Collardi, CEO Julius Baer, said in a prepared statement.

A sample of  items from Bank Julius Baer’s lifestyle index

Item

Price (USD)

Pct. Increase from 2010

Bottle of Lafite Rothschild 2000

$3,336

21.9%

Chanel quilted bag

$4,185

17.5%

Steinway Grand Piano

$201,021

16.7%

Ladies Classic Louboutin pumps

$1,868

10.8%

Tiffany 2 ct diamond ring

$96,479

10.3%

Oyster Rolex watch

$32,201

9.1%

Cohiba siglo VI cigar

$760

5.0%

Scupltra liquid facelift

$6,578

4.3%

Source: Bank Julius Baer

More topics: Asiabank julius baerChinaChinese stocksemerging marketshnwiIndian stocksinvesting in Chinainvesting in Indialuxuryrichwealthy

- See more at: http://emergingmoney.com/bric/asias-luxury-goods-inflation-beats-cpi-for-the-rest-of-us/#sthash.pgPuVQ54.dpuf

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

The Fourth, the Glorious Fourth ...


Presented for your enjoyment, this is one of my all-time favorite pieces of both writing and performance. Imagine laying in the dark, a transistor radio set with the volume just low enough for only you to hear, a conspiracy of two. The listener, and the voice in the dark. Shepherd may be gone, but remember, "Flick Lives."


Sunday, July 15, 2012

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Another entry ...

“Stop wallowing.”
“Hmmmmm?”
“I said, ‘Stop wallowing.’”
“What do you mean?”
“You are wallowing. You are bemoaning your sorry state and steeping in your misery. You are basting in your ennui. You are marinating in depression.
“Stop wallowing.”

She was right, of course. I mean, it’s not like I didn’t have what to be depressed about. It’s just that she wanted me to stop letting it define me. It probably would have helped if she wasn’t standing in the doorway with a suitcase filled with the ephemera of a relationship.

A toothbrush. A sweatshirt from the Jersey shore. A pair of water shoes we bought when we thought we might take up kayaking, a pair of flannel pajamas, a robe, a suit. The cubic zirconium earrings I gave her on our three-quarters a’versary. Most of the contents of the bottom drawer of my dresser, which had been turned over for her use.

“You should write.”
“Huh?”
“I said, ‘You should write.”
“Write what?”
“Write whatever. You are a good writer. You know how to evoke emotion. You can turn a phrase. The world is crashing in and you are falling apart and you should write about it. Lord knows there are plenty of you out there. Write what they need to read.”

“They? Which they?” It was an old joke. The nonspecific ‘they’ that were always doing things we were waiting to be completed. Have they plowed the streets yet? Have they delivered the mail? Have they scored? Are they here? Somewhere a they was always doing something and we were waiting. Sounds like a Beckett absurdist play.

“I have to go.”
“No, you don’t.”
“Yes, I have to do this. Alone.”
“No, you don’t. You say you like being alone. You think you like being alone, but you don’t. I’ll bet you’re already looking for someone new. You just don’t want to do it with me.”

I looked away. The truth is, I have no armor and less pretense. I have little ability to keep what I am thinking from coming out of my mouth and less skill at hiding my feelings. I come from a long line of depressives with poor emotional control. It’s a wonder we aren’t alcoholics, though I am beginning to think I might try that just for a change of pace. It has to beat feeling like this.

No, actually, I can’t. The teenagers will get in to the booze and then there is none for me. The last thing I need is for some parent to complain to the cops that I let the kids get to my liquor. Which is why I have none in the house. Even when I want a drink, like now.

“I have to go,” she said again, her hand on the storm door, the heavy steel inner door open against the wall. I narrowed my eyes and let her outline shimmer before me. I was remembering our first kiss, which is a silly thing to remember, but something I always came back to. It’s not like we had a particularly chaste relationship, but I’ll always remember that first kiss.

It was my first date. Well, not my first date, but the first one in a long time, say a good 20 years, and the first one since my marriage had come to a screeching end. Imploded. Exploded. Smashed to bits. Stick a fork in it. Over. But that is a story for another time.

I spotted her first on one of those Internet dating sites and was completely smitten. We were the same age, her kids were all in college. And I thought her pictures were beautiful. For once, I was going to be careful. “Hold on to this one,” I thought. “Wait a while until you are really ready.”
Two days later she contacted me.

Well, there goes that plan, I thought. After two weeks of email and phone calls I found myself at her door, with flowers, baguettes, wine and cheese. I’d hoped for a picnic, but the weather was iffy, so I swept in to the place and started puttering around the kitchen. In honor of the day, I bought a set of little champagne bottles. I opened it with much ceremony and toasting.

Here’s a tip: don’t ever buy sparkling wine in a four-pack.

We found a pitcher for the flowers and had our picnic on the floor. We talked, about our children, our exes and spouses, our parents, the general insanity of the oil depletion allowance, the evils of insurance companies, and Ben Franklin. We cried a bit. We went to dinner nearby and let the old Jewish people waiting before us provide the floor show.

Finally, we were back at her place and it was time to go. I bent down for a kiss and felt her arms around my neck. Her lips were soft as lamb’s wool, and firm at the same time, and just a little moist. I can still remember the taste, which seemed to go on forever and last just the briefest of moments as I skidded off to the side.


I think the world stopped spinning. Somewhere, fist fights were halted in mid punch, children stopped crying, fireworks waited in mid-explosion, and green lights lasted just that much longer. I wanted to go back for more, I ached for another taste. Don't, I thought to myself, don't act like a creep. 

And now, she was leaving.

“I’m going,” she said, again, her hand on the door, unmoving. “The kids are in the car, they’re waiting.”

Six years and its gone in a flash. I had promised myself that I would never feel this way again. When the marriage ended, I wasn’t so much hurt at the loss of the relationship as I was annoyed at the inconvenience. Find a place to live, buy new beds, paint the walls, hire a mover. Pay a security deposit. Here I am. Getting kicked in the teeth, again.

“Stop wallowing.”

“Okay, now you’re pissing me off. Words were spoken and promises made. I think I am allowed to be sad over something so important. I am ambivalent about you being glad at looking ahead.
“I really do wish you and the children well, but as an unemployed, middle-aged white guy with a bad heart and a worse thyroid, and a knack to piss off people, my future doesn’t look so hot.

Great, my big speech and I worry about splitting infinitives.

“But, you know what? I keep taking my classes and writing my papers. I am going to the gym. I try to set standards for my children, even if they ignore me. I make dinner for the family, even if no one speaks during the meal. I keep applying for jobs. I take my meds. I cut the grass. I do the laundry. I pay the bills. I put one foot in front of the other.

“So, yes, stupid movies make me cry. Breaking up hurts. Not having a job is frightening. Trying to balance my health with crappy insurance is scary. And wanting to have someone to give me a bit of shelter from life is not a crime. Not when I thought that is what I had pledged already. And what I was ready to do for you.

“I loved you completely and Lord help me, if you crooked your little finger right now I would probably come running and all would be forgiven. But my happiness is not your responsibility.”

I finished talking. Not exactly the declaration of principles I was hoping to make but it would have to suffice. The only problem is that she left after “doesn’t look so hot.” I have to save that. Might come in handy someday.



Monday, December 19, 2011


Father's Day

     Crack! The sound of bat on ball resounded throughout the stadium. An intuition became embedded in my brain.
     It is a foul ball. It is mine.
     In more than 30 years of major, minor, Pee Wee, Bronco, high school, Babe Ruth and college baseball games I had never been anywhere close to snagging a ball from the stands, fair or foul. But this one was going to end up in my pocket, I sensed immediately. I was going to bring it in, by force of will alone if necessary, but I would be going home with that ball at the end of the day.
     This ball is mine.
     It began climbing into the bright blue New Mexico sky, tracing an arc over the stands on the first-base side where I waited, armed with a hot dog in my right hand, paper dollars and clinking coins, the change from my purchase, in my left.
     This ball is mine.
     I shifted the money to my left front pocket and swapped the hot dog to the now empty hand. I waited.
     Baseball was more than breathing for me for many years. It was my sport, my muse, beyond a reason for being. It was my entire being. In spring, it was the reason to get up. In winter, it was the reason to wait for spring. The cruel `January thaw' of my youth was a time to shag flies at the end of our cul-de-sac, surrounded by piles and mountains of grit-encrusted snow. Those few days of sun provided just enough warmth to bring out glove, bat and ball. Just a taste to keep us going until the earth reawakened to ground balls and pop flies and squeeze plays and stolen bases and hit-and-runs.
     Summers were filled with games, and autumn with Jewish holidays, baseball playoffs and the sorrow of the season past. I atoned for my errors and missed pitches and asked for forgiveness and to be inscribed in the book of high averages and quick hands and a strong arm for the year to come.
     In gym, I was the prototypical last kid chosen. A lumbering, chubby, weak, clumsy, adolescent, best suited for blocking in football, or providing an obstacle in dodge ball. I spent the entire eighth grade avoiding wrestling. When the gym teacher finally figured out that I had gone a whole year without a match, I was pinned in record time.
     In high school, I once managed to spike a volley ball into the face of an unsuspecting young Adonis who seemed twice my height, with a wingspan at least three miles wide. Retribution was swift and merciless and the universe returned to its natural state. The athlete reigned supreme. The upstart was humbled.
     This ball is mine.
     But when it came time to pick baseball teams, the last was first. Suddenly, I was the one selected early among the sheep. I was among the elite. Chosen. Elect. Selected.
     The mantra rolled through my brain as I alone heard dozens of voices combine into one: Keep your eye on the ball. Coaches I had not thought of in years joined the chorus in my brain. It echoed and reformed and reverberated and grew softer, then louder. Faces appeared in my mind's eye and then passed quickly. The Cunninghams, Walt and Ken; Mr. Levine, my brother. Keep your eye on the ball.
     In our house, traditional baseball roles were reversed. My father was not a fan of team sports in any way. It was my mother who was the baseball fan. At least, she was the one who had her heart broken by baseball. She was among the legions of Brooklynites who were devastated when their beloved Dodgers moved to Los Angeles in the 1950s.
     She never forgave baseball the slight. For years, the mention of the O'Malley family -- the owners of the Dodgers -- would bring a sneer. I always said that my mother wouldn’t go out of her way to spit on Walter O’Malley’s grave. However, if she happened to find herself close to the place of his final reward, I’m not so sure she wouldn’t water the grass.
     But when Kirk Gibson hit a ninth-inning homer to win the first game of the 1988 World Series, my mother was right on top of it.
     My father did his parental duty and bought my older brother his first baseball glove and taught him to catch and throw. For me, it was my brother, six years my senior, who threw with me in the backyard and talked about planting a foot and keeping your head in the play.
     My parents were utterly not sports parents. They believed that we had to want to participate for ourselves, not for their approval. Of course, we would never have signed up for something that required 5 a.m. practices.
     Our presence on a team did not automatically require their attendance at every game and every practice. My mother did her one shift a year in the snack bar and let you know she had done it. My father would occasionally appear along the left field fence in the late innings, after dinner. Though I do remember the time we helped paint and repair the stands at the field.
     Higher, higher and higher the ball soared on a background so blue that dots and splashes appeared before the eyes, pixelating the heavens into a thousand million pieces. We stood in shadow under the roof, protected from the desert sun scorching the field and sky. Off to one side, it seemed just beyond the right field fence, the dun and copper mountains rose beyond the sand, then stretched and marched off into the distance.
     This ball is mine.
     Frank Eufemia, a voice whispered.
     What?
     Frank Eufemia, the voice repeated.
     Concentrate, I thought. Don't get distracted. Keep your eye on the ball and it will be ours. Stay with it. Stay with it.
     Frank Eufemia.
     Don't give in. Stay focused. My right palm itched, a bead of cold sweat trickled between my shoulder blades.
     Frank Eufemia.
     And then, I was 13 years old and the most important at-bat of my life was looming. I was going to have to face Frank Eufemia. Again.
     Ahab had his white whale. Nixon had Woodward and Bernstein. Patton had Rommel. Hillary has the vast right-wing conspiracy. I have Frank Eufemia, or did, to haunt my dreams.
     Many is the night I awoke at 3 a.m. with a shiver amid images of a Cardinals uniform towering over me as I stood at the plate, trying to save my career and my team in one swing.
     To understand the importance of that moment, you should know it came at the end of a momentous three years of baseball. When we moved up a division in the Police Athletic League, we were the kids whose birthdays were after the cut-off date. Hence, we were all the youngest kids in the league when we faced our first game.
     This was in the days before "mercy" rules, before everyone was special. Was our way better? I think so. At least, we still got to play. A "mercy" rule would end the game pretty damn quickly when the other guys run up a score of 33-0.
     We would not win a single game all that long, lonely, hot first season. We finally won a game midway through our second season. But, when boys grow from 10 to 13, strange things happen, and by the time our third and final season as a team rolled around, we were the monsters in the fields of dreams.
     I was already at my full adult height and Dom Marino was so big he couldn't wear the pants that came with his uniform. Rival coaches, more than once, muttered about birth certificates and checking records as we came up to bat, just loud enough for us to hear.
     Our team, which was the doormat of PAL baseball only moments before, became a swaggering, swearing, spitting, chewing, feared presence on the diamond. A collection of motley men among boys. At least three guys were shaving. Two others had draft notices. Double plays were turned crisply. I could throw a ball on a laser line from right field to third base. It was the rare runner who tested that arm more than once.
     Greg Butler, our right-handed first baseman, could stretch at least a mile and a half to bring home an errant throw. Brian Connelly, who had perfected the bunt single as an undersized tyke years before, once almost killed an opposing third baseman. The fielder was creeping forward, expecting the typical `dink' from Brian's bat, when he stepped back and rapped out a sharp liner right at the guy's head. The player survived only by falling flat on his back.
     Walt, our coach, finally asked Kevin O’Brien why he threw lefty and batted righty. When we turned him to the other side of the plate, scorching-hot line drives and base hits proliferated.
     We appeared and mothers fainted and fathers hid small children. The Braves, they whispered as we arrived on the field. Ohmygawd, it’s the Braves.
     That year I actually parked two shots over the fence. There is a special feeling when you hit a home run that is difficult to describe because it feels like ... nothing. When you catch a ball in the sweet spot of the bat and hit it perfectly, you swing right through the ball. There is almost no contact, and certainly no sensation in your hands. I would put my head down, as my coaches taught me, and run as fast as I could to first base, trying to dig out a hit. Rounding first, I would hear cheering and clapping and I would drop into a homerun trot. I was always extra careful to touch all the bases.
     Here we were. The end of the third season, ready to claim our place in the sun, when the unthinkable occurred. We finished in a dead heat with the Cardinals. Even. Tied. Kissing our sisters. There would be a one-game playoff to determine which of the two teams would go on to our World Series.
     We battled and entered the top of the last inning tied. The exact score is lost to the mists of time, but I remember the next inning in almost every detail. They loaded the bases, two outs. A long fly ball over the centerfielder’s head and two runs scored. The final out.
     The bottom of the last inning. I was the first one at bat. "Go, Larry," I heard from the stands. "Knock one out of there."
     Frank Eufemia.
     He faced me from the mound. I dug in my feet. I was ready. I was angry. We would not go down as losers. Not after all we had endured.
    Whoooooooooooooosh!!!!!!!!!
     The ball was a blur. It was in his hands, and then magically it appeared somewhere in front of me, just milliseconds later. I swung. To no discernible effect.
     I dug in harder. I pounded the bat on the plate. I was ready.
     Whooooooooooooosh!!!!!!!!!
     The ball was a spirit, a ghost, an apparition, a flowing river of white and streaks of red that was past me before he finished his motion. I swung, connecting with nothing but air.
     I grimaced. I grunted. I felt sweat on my brow, bile in my throat. Give me one to hit, I prayed. Just lay it out over the plate.
     Whoooooooooooosh!!!!!!!!!
     Faster still. A breeze flew past, a zing of sound. My bat was as effective as a fly swatter against a rhino. Three pitches, three swings. I was done. We were done. The season was done. I would play half of one season the next year and then I was out of organized baseball of any kind.
     Nothing. Nada. Zero. Zip. Zilch.
     It was all over and Frank Eufemia had killed it.
     For years I would remember the sights, the smells, the tastes of that day. In the still moments of the night, in that place where dreams go to die and nightmares go to live, Frank Eufemia would be waiting for me, standing on a pitching mound, a ball in one hand, a glove on the other. A burning, glowing, fiery ball, with wisps of smoke curling around his arm and over his head.
     And then it would be flying at my head, 10,000 miles an hour, darting and weaving and I would flail at it with a piece of floppy macaroni six feet long.
     It was a difficult time. Especially when he apologized in school the next day. You don't apologize in baseball. Sandy Koufax never apologized. Babe Ruth never said `Sorry,' for knocking one out of the park. Jackie Robinson never, ever made amends for being a better player than most of the white guys who tortured him.
     It hurt for a long time. Years. A decade. Until one day.
     I was in Battle Creek, Michigan, with more time on my hands than usual so I read the Sunday paper. The whole paper. The real estate ads. The want ads. The merchandise for sale ads. The sports section. The baseball news. The story about the Twins' new young pitching phenom. From Bergenfield, New Jersey.
     Frank Eufemia.
     And suddenly, the curse was lifted. No longer would I awaken in the early hours, waiting to be taken like a lamb to slaughter.
     I had faced a major-league fastball. And survived. True, I didn't even foul one off, but I did see it. If only briefly.
     Frank would spend a year with the Twins, winning four and losing two. He pitched in 39 games, finishing 21, and amassing a respectable if not spectacular earned run average of 3.79. Thirty major leaguers shared my fate, while 21 waited him out for walks.
     But he made it to The Show. And I saw it when.
     This ball is mine.
     Turning over in the New Mexico sun, the foul ball kept curling ever so slowly to the stands where I stood.
Stay with it, I thought. Stay with it. Keep your eye on the ball.
     Picking up speed, the ball grew larger and larger and came closer and closer, tumbling, spinning down as I watched for my chance. Here it comes, I thought, I really am going to get it.
     This ball is mine.
     And as I stood there, my old outfielder's sense told me that it would be just slightly over my head. It was going to be a near thing, but the ball would pass just out of reach, heading about two rows behind me. It would still be the closest I ever came to a ball in the stands, but not close enough. Just not quite close enough.
I was beyond the years when jumping across concrete stands could be considered with impunity. It was going to pass over my head, barely, but enough.
     This ball is mine. Stay with it. Keep your eye on the ball. Don't give up.
     Turning as the ball passed over, I watched carefully, as a forest of outstretched arms welcomed the orb. One second, it was there and the next, it had disappeared into the waiting hands.
     Then, miraculously, it reappeared. It bounced off someone's head, or out of their hands, but in any event, it was hanging in the air just above my nose, ripe as an orange and ready to be picked.
     I plucked it out of the air. Turned around. Showed it to the crowd.
     "Nice catch," the hot dog guy said.